How Big Is Canada’s Mortgage Renewal Wave, Really?
The renewal wave is real, but the national data does not support the cliff headlines from 2023. The Bank of Canada’s Financial Stability Report, published 28 May 2026, puts the group facing a serious payment jump at 12.4% of all outstanding mortgages, not the whole market. This page lays out that data cohort by cohort, every figure sourced and dated.
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How many Canadian mortgages are renewing between mid-2026 and the end of 2027?
No official source publishes one renewal count for 2026 or 2027. Using the Bank of Canada’s own published shares, Pekoe calculates that 26.8% of all outstanding mortgages renew between mid-2026 and mid-2027, a further 14.3% renew in the second half of 2027, and 41.1% renew across the full window.
The Bank of Canada’s Financial Stability Report, published 28 May 2026, breaks outstanding mortgages into four cohorts by how their payment changes at renewal and by when they renew. It states the share of all outstanding accounts for two windows: the second half of 2026 through the first half of 2027, and the second half of 2027 on its own. Pekoe added those published shares together to produce the window totals below.
Show the math: renewal wave windows, Pekoe’s calculation from Bank of Canada shares
These are Pekoe’s own sums of the Bank’s published shares, not a Bank of Canada total. Neither the Bank, nor any lender, regulator or statistics agency publishes a unit count of mortgages renewing in a given calendar year. A later section on this page explains why that number does not exist and what is published in its place.
The citable fact: Pekoe’s calculation from Bank of Canada Financial Stability Report 2026 shares shows 41.1% of all outstanding Canadian mortgages renew between the second half of 2026 and the end of 2027, with 16.5% of all accounts in the cohort facing a material payment increase.
What does the Bank of Canada’s mortgage renewal data show, cohort by cohort?
The Bank of Canada splits renewing mortgages into four groups: long fixed terms of five years or more, and a combined group of shorter fixed terms and variable-payment mortgages, each measured across two renewal windows. Average payment change ranges from a 0.04% decrease to a 15.2% increase, with each cohort’s share of all outstanding accounts published alongside it.
Payments are measured against what the borrower was paying in December 2025, so this is a payment comparison, not a rate comparison. The table below reproduces the Bank’s four rows exactly, with the source and the measurement basis stated once.
| Cohort | Avg. payment change at renewal | Share of all outstanding accounts | Renewal window |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fixed-payment, term 5 years or more | +15.2% | 12.4% | 2026H2 and 2027H1 |
| Fixed-payment under 5 years, or variable-payment | -0.04% | 14.4% | 2026H2 and 2027H1 |
| Fixed-payment, term 5 years or more | +5.8% | 4.1% | 2027H2 |
| Fixed-payment under 5 years, or variable-payment | +1.2% | 10.2% | 2027H2 |
The citable fact: As of the Bank of Canada’s Financial Stability Report 2026 (28 May 2026), mortgages on a long fixed term of five years or more renewing in the next 18 months face an average payment increase of 15.2% and make up 12.4% of all outstanding accounts.
How much will payments rise for the group facing the biggest increase at renewal?
Borrowers renewing a fixed-payment mortgage with an original term of five years or more face an average payment increase of about 15%, and this group makes up about 12% of all outstanding mortgages in Canada. The Bank of Canada names this group specifically as the one carrying the real renewal shock, not the market as a whole.
The Bank of Canada states it plainly: “This group represents about 12% of all outstanding mortgages in Canada. On average, these borrowers will see their payments increase by about 15%.” That is the cohort driving most of the renewal-related financial stress coverage.
This is the group that locked a five-year or longer fixed rate before the 2022 to 2023 rate increases and is now renewing into a materially different payment. For help comparing offers at your own renewal, see Pekoe’s mortgage renewal services.
The citable fact: The Bank of Canada’s own language: borrowers on a long fixed term renewing now see payments rise by about 15% on average, and this group is about 12% of all outstanding mortgages in Canada.
Will most mortgage holders actually see a payment increase at renewal?
No. The larger group, borrowers with a fixed term under five years or a variable-payment mortgage, will not see their payments change at renewal on average, according to the Bank of Canada. This group alone is 14.4% of all outstanding accounts in the 2026H2 to 2027H1 window and 10.2% in 2027H2, with average payment moves of -0.04% and +1.2%.
The Bank states this group directly: on average, it “will not see their payments change at renewal.” The 2026H2 to 2027H1 figure for this group is actually a small decrease, -0.04%, and the 2027H2 figure is a modest increase of 1.2%, nowhere near the long fixed term cohort’s 15.2%.
This is also the larger of the two cohorts measured in each window: 14.4% against 12.4% in the first window, and 10.2% against 4.1% in the second. Blending the two cohorts into one average, as some renewal coverage does, understates the long fixed term group’s real exposure.
The citable fact: The Bank of Canada states that borrowers on a fixed term under five years, or on a variable-payment mortgage, will not see their payments change at renewal on average.
Is the 2026 renewal wave bigger or smaller than 2025’s?
Smaller. CMHC reports that the number of borrowers renewing in 2026 is 13% lower than the number who renewed in 2025, and describes renewal pressure as having peaked in 2025. That directly contradicts the renewal “cliff” framing still common in coverage of this topic.
CMHC’s Residential Mortgage Industry Report, Spring 2026 Edition, published 12 May 2026, states: “The number of borrowers who will be renewing in 2026 is 13% lower than the number who renewed in 2025.” The same report carries this finding under the heading “Renewal ‘cliff’ worries dissipating in 2026.”
This is a volume comparison, not a payment-size comparison. A smaller renewing cohort in 2026 does not mean a smaller payment jump for the borrowers inside the long fixed term group covered above; it means fewer borrowers overall are renewing this year than last.
The citable fact: CMHC’s Spring 2026 Residential Mortgage Industry Report (12 May 2026) states that the number of borrowers renewing in 2026 is 13% lower than the number who renewed in 2025, with renewal pressure peaking in 2025.
How many mortgages are renewing in 2026, in absolute numbers?
No official publisher states one. The Bank of Canada publishes shares of all outstanding accounts, not a unit count by calendar year, and CMHC publishes a year-over-year percentage change and a rolling household estimate, not a precise 2026 figure. Multiplying a share by an estimated loan count to invent a number would not be a published statistic.
Three sources were checked for this page: the Bank of Canada’s Financial Stability Report, CMHC’s Residential Mortgage Industry Report, and CMHC’s February 2026 Observer article on the renewal wave. None of the three states a clean count of mortgages renewing in 2026 alone, or in 2027 alone.
CMHC’s 5 February 2026 Observer article said more than 1.5 million households had already renewed at higher rates and another million were set to sign new terms in the coming year. That figure describes a rolling period rather than a calendar year, so it cannot be read as “2026’s renewal count.”
That CMHC figure dates from February 2026, so read it as a snapshot of where the renewal wave stood then rather than as a current count. The Bank of Canada shares above state their own measurement window, which is why this page leads with those instead.
The citable fact: No official source, including the Bank of Canada and CMHC, publishes an absolute count of mortgages renewing in 2026 or in 2027 separately; the published data is expressed as shares of outstanding accounts and as year-over-year percentage change.
Are renewing borrowers actually paying more than they originally qualified for?
Mostly, no. The Bank of Canada found that more than 90% of borrowers who renewed in the past 12 months did so at rates below their qualifying rate, the stress-tested rate used to approve the original mortgage. That cushion is one reason the renewal wave has not produced the payment shock widely predicted in 2023.
The Bank states this directly: “more than 90% of borrowers who renewed in the past 12 months did so at rates below their qualifying rates.” The mortgage stress test, the greater of the contract rate plus 2% or a 5.25% floor, was designed to build in exactly this kind of buffer.
A payment increase at renewal and a payment that exceeds what the borrower was originally qualified to carry are two different things. Most renewing borrowers are experiencing the first without the second.
The citable fact: Per the Bank of Canada, more than 90% of borrowers who renewed in the 12 months before the Financial Stability Report 2026 did so at rates below their original qualifying rate.
When does the Bank of Canada expect the renewal wave’s worst effects to pass?
By the second half of 2027. The Bank of Canada states that nearly all mortgage holders facing large payment increases will have renewed by then, as the long fixed term cohort works its way through its five-year terms. After that point, the cohort facing the steepest increases is mostly gone from the renewing pool.
The Bank’s own words: “By the second half of 2027, nearly all mortgage holders facing large payment increases will have renewed.” That statement lines up with the cohort data above: the long fixed term group’s share drops from 12.4% in the first window to 4.1% in 2027H2, and its average increase drops too, from 15.2% to 5.8%.
This is the clearest evidence against a 2027 renewal cliff. The group most exposed to a large increase gets smaller and less exposed with each successive window, not larger.
The citable fact: The Bank of Canada states that by the second half of 2027, nearly all mortgage holders facing large payment increases at renewal will have already renewed.
How many renewing borrowers can’t refinance at today’s prices?
An estimated 4% of borrowers renewing in 2027 could not refinance at current home prices, rising to about 9% in the Toronto area, according to the Bank of Canada. Under a further 10% price decline, those figures rise to about 7% nationally and 12% in Toronto, a stress scenario rather than a forecast.
These figures come from the same Financial Stability Report, published 28 May 2026, and describe borrowers whose loan-to-value position would not clear a lender’s refinance test at current prices. The Toronto-area figure is consistently worse than the national figure in both the base case and the stress scenario, reflecting the Greater Toronto Area’s larger price decline relative to other regions.
This is a small share of the renewing population, not the market as a whole. It describes an inability to refinance, meaning draw additional funds or switch lenders, rather than an inability to renew with the existing lender at all.
The citable fact: The Bank of Canada estimates 4% of borrowers renewing in 2027 could not refinance at current prices nationally, about 9% in the Toronto area, rising to about 7% and 12% respectively under a further 10% price decline.
What share of refinancing borrowers are extending their amortization?
About 70% of borrowers who refinanced extended their amortization, by an average of six years, according to the Bank of Canada. That is a behaviour observed in the data, not a recommendation, and it is one of the main ways renewing borrowers have absorbed a higher payment.
The Bank’s Financial Stability Report 2026 reports that about 70% of borrowers who refinanced extended their amortization, by an average of six years. Stretching the amortization lowers the monthly payment at the cost of more total interest paid over the life of the loan.
This figure describes refinancing borrowers specifically, a subset of all renewing borrowers, not the renewing population as a whole. It sits alongside the 90% figure above as another reason the renewal wave has produced fewer payment shocks than the 2023 forecasts implied.
The citable fact: About 70% of borrowers who refinanced extended their amortization by an average of six years, per the Bank of Canada’s Financial Stability Report 2026.
Does the renewal wave look different in Ontario than in Alberta?
The Bank of Canada’s renewal shares are national and are not broken out by province. The best available regional signal is mortgage arrears: Ontario’s 90-plus-day arrears rate has risen from 0.20% to 0.34% over 15 months to July 2026, overtaking Alberta’s, which has stayed flat at about 0.28%, per the Canadian Bankers Association.
No provincial breakdown of the Bank of Canada’s renewal cohort data was found in this research pass, so do not read a province-specific renewal share into the national figures above. The closest verified regional signal is the Canadian Bankers Association’s monthly arrears series, which does split by province and shows Ontario arrears rising faster than Alberta’s over the past 15 months.
| Month ended | Canada | Ontario | Alberta |
|---|---|---|---|
| April 2025 | 0.22% | 0.20% | 0.27% |
| July 2025 | 0.23% | 0.22% | 0.26% |
| October 2025 | 0.25% | 0.26% | 0.25% |
| January 2026 | 0.27% | 0.29% | 0.27% |
| April 2026 | 0.28% | 0.31% | 0.26% |
| July 2026 | 0.29% | 0.34% | 0.28% |
Both provinces are served by Pekoe Mortgages. Ontario brokerages and agents are licensed by FSRA, Brokerage Licence #13321, and Ontario’s default remedy on a mortgage is power of sale. Alberta brokerages are licensed by RECA, and Alberta’s default remedy is judicial foreclosure. Neither regulatory difference changes how the national renewal wave data above applies to a given borrower.
The citable fact: Ontario’s 90-plus-day mortgage arrears rate rose from 0.20% to 0.34% between April 2025 and July 2026, overtaking both Alberta (flat at about 0.28%) and the national average, per the Canadian Bankers Association.
How current is this renewal data, and when does it change next?
The core renewal wave figures on this page come from the Bank of Canada’s Financial Stability Report, an annual publication set on 28 May 2026. It will not be revised until roughly May 2027, so every figure on this page should be read with that date attached, not treated as a live, continuously updated number.
The Financial Stability Report is published once a year, and the renewal cohort data here reflects conditions as the Bank saw them on 28 May 2026. CMHC’s complementary figures carry their own dates: 12 May 2026 for the Spring Residential Mortgage Industry Report, and 5 February 2026 for the Observer article on renewal volumes, flagged above as the most dated figure used on this page.
A reader returning to this page in 2027 should expect the underlying data to have moved, particularly the share of the long fixed term cohort still left to renew, which the Bank itself says shrinks through the second half of 2027. Check the publication date in each figure’s sentence rather than assuming the page updates automatically.
The citable fact: The renewal wave figures on this page are drawn from the Bank of Canada’s Financial Stability Report 2026, set on 28 May 2026 and not due for revision until roughly May 2027.
Where do I go for help with my own renewal, not just the data?
This page stays on the national numbers. For the practical side of your own file, Pekoe already covers these questions directly.
- Pekoe’s mortgage renewal services, for help comparing offers and switching lenders at your own renewal.
- What happens if you do nothing at renewal
- What to do if your bank won’t renew your mortgage
- Renewing with worse credit or lower income than last time
- Calculate your own renewal payment shock
The full set lives on the Ask a Broker hub.
Frequently asked questions
What is the mortgage renewal wave the Bank of Canada describes?
It is the group of mortgages set up before recent interest rate increases that are now reaching the end of their term and renewing at different payments. The Bank of Canada’s Financial Stability Report 2026, published 28 May 2026, splits this group into cohorts by term length and measures the average payment change for each.
How many mortgages are renewing in Canada in 2026?
No official source publishes a single count for 2026 alone. CMHC reports the 2026 renewal volume is 13% lower than 2025’s, and the Bank of Canada publishes shares of outstanding accounts rather than a unit count, so a precise 2026 figure cannot be stated as fact.
How many mortgages are renewing in 2027?
The same gap applies to 2027. Pekoe’s own addition of the Bank of Canada’s published shares shows 14.3% of all outstanding accounts renewing in the second half of 2027 alone, but no official source converts that into a unit count.
What percentage of mortgages face a real payment increase at renewal?
About 16.5% of all outstanding mortgages, the long fixed term cohort across both measured windows, is the group facing a material increase. The much larger remaining share, on shorter fixed terms or variable payments, sees little to no average change according to the Bank of Canada.
How much will payments rise for borrowers on a long fixed term?
About 15% on average for the cohort renewing over the next 18 months, and about 6% on average for the smaller group renewing in the second half of 2027. These figures come from the Bank of Canada’s Financial Stability Report 2026.
Will variable-rate borrowers see a payment increase at renewal?
On average, no. The Bank of Canada states that borrowers on a variable-payment mortgage or a fixed term under five years will not see their payments change at renewal on average, though individual files vary.
Is the renewal wave worse in 2026 or in 2027?
By volume, 2026 is lighter than 2025, and the first half of 2027 carries the larger share of the long fixed term cohort. By the second half of 2027, the Bank of Canada expects nearly all mortgage holders facing large increases to have already renewed.
How many renewing borrowers can’t refinance at today’s prices?
The Bank of Canada estimates about 4% of borrowers renewing in 2027 nationally, and about 9% in the Toronto area. Under a further 10% price decline, those figures rise to about 7% and 12%.
Is this renewal data different for Ontario than for Alberta?
The Bank of Canada’s renewal cohort data is national and not broken out by province. Mortgage arrears data, a different measure, shows Ontario’s rate rising faster than Alberta’s over the past 15 months, which is the closest verified regional signal available.
How often does this renewal data get updated?
The core figures come from the Bank of Canada’s Financial Stability Report, an annual publication set on 28 May 2026 and not due for revision until roughly May 2027. CMHC publishes complementary figures on a different, more frequent schedule.
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No. The chat connects to a real licensed Pekoe broker during business hours, and outside those hours a licensed broker replies directly rather than an automated persona. That is a deliberate difference from chat tools used elsewhere in this market.
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